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| Steyne Park, Marrickville | Saturday 24th March |
On Friday
night, shortly before the Essendon/Adelaide clash, I shared a little text
exchange with Anna of
the Marracka Villes. ‘Go Bombers!’ I typed. Anna was already
experiencing the tightrope of team tipping. The Marracka Villes had locked in
the Crows, but new right-hand Ezra was pushing for a late swap to
Essendon. Anna was reluctant.
The game
unfolded as it did, with an early Essendon lead and a strong come back by the
Crows. At 9.22pm a text came in: ‘Last
minute swap by the Marracka Villes – game 2 & already some tension.’ At
that stage of the match, it looked like a mistake, a rookie error on the part
of right-hand Ezra. ‘Last minute swaps
are very perilous,’ I replied.
Esteemed Tipster Sally has perhaps been the strongest voice on this subject. Sally has maintained a bottom line to her many years of tipping: Never ever change your tips!!
The
rationale may go something like this … if you tip and you’re wrong, you have a
single disappointment, that of not getting the tip. If you tip, change and are
then proved wrong, you have a double dose of disappointment – the
disappointment of losing the point + the disappointment of having changed your
tip. There may be additional sub layers involved – wondering why you didn’t
trust your instinct, angsting over your inclination to self doubt, fears of
sinking into a deep, season-long existential battle …
But, on
the flip side, the promised high of a last minute swap that turns out to be a
success is very tempting. And it is indeed a high high! As Essendon tenaciously
clawed their way back into the lead and held on for a victory, I was curious
about the tone at Marracka Ville Central. It appears that a very dignified Ezra simply
offered a knowing smile.
The
question then becomes - how many times does tipping juju voodoo allow a tipster
to get away with last minute changes? Is there a relationship to lucky dips or
probabilities or some such other enchantment? I have to admit, my perfect 9 in
Round 1 included not one but TWO last minute changes!! (Essendon was not one of
them.) I had originally chosen Melbourne to defeat Geelong but reconsidered
hours before the game on finding out it was Joel Selwood’s 250th
game. (I was at Selwood's 200th game in Geelong and it was fierce!) That combined with the return of the Son of God might just get them over
the line if it got tight. Turns out Max Gawn got them over the line.
There are
conditions that warrant a relatively level-headed consideration of a last
minute tip change. A last minute star scratching or key position injury. A
particular emotional drive – think the death of Adelaide coach Phil Walsh. A
milestone for a true clubman. A tropical weather system. But all of these
elements belong more in the camp of speculative magic. Peter reminded me over
coffee on Saturday that really the numbers are your best friend.
What think you Tipsters, to change or not to change?
