Round 5 - ah, an excellent round. For some. Especially the red and white of us. No matter what your tipping score this week, you have to love that Bloods display of milestone R E S P E C T.
On the tipping ladder this week ... Patrick has resumed the throne. He's been on the tele and the radio all week. Do you think it has something to do with leading the Backpocket? Naturally he's become impossible to live with.
2009 champion, Sharolyn, moved into the Top 5 this week while the J@TS dropped out. Byron Middleton continued his meteoric rise, climbing a further 10 places this week, into the Top 10. Dad, James, is keeping an eye on him from 10th.
Gary may have dropped 2 places overall this week, but he was the only Tipster to have equaled his Round placing - coming 15th in both Rounds 4 and 5. Now there's a mini challenge for those who already feel out of contention.
And while we're on contention, Mark sent me a little email during the week; some very interesting food for thought and/or debate.
'You can't win a tipping comp in the first five weeks. But you can lose it. Is it going out too hard to say that with the 2 point break between the 37s and 35s, that the winner is already in the 37 and over category?'
The Great Tipping Divide – It’s Only Marginal
ReplyDeleteAh, the perennial question – when does the tipping divide become too wide to cross. It is an old Backpocket (and Statswally) favourite. But I say this … NEVER and thrice more I say, never, never, never.
Sure it can appear to be a tough chasm to breach but there is time enough if good enough. And this year, more than previously, there is more time – the season is long and there are more games in each round to pick-up points. There is no shortage of opportunities but you must dare to take them.
Wasn’t The Swans (there’s one for the grammartarians) down by a bundle and stormed home to win by a bigger bundle. Time enough and good enough. Didn’t someone snatch grand final victory from the jaws of defeat in the 1970s after being down 50 points with only a quarter to play? Not time enough, but good enough.
But you will need a strategy. You need to tip to win. You need to take an educated, calculated punt. You need to work out when Melbourne will win and pick ‘em! But most importantly, you need to do this for their first win of the season. After that there will a bandwagon, a groundswell and when everyone tips the same, there is no gain. But it is better to have tried and failed than … it is better to burn out than fade away.
And pay attention to your margins. This is a much overlooked and often belittled factor. Take us (The JaTS). We’re languishing at the bottom of five teams all on37 points because of our woeful margin (205 – thanks to one shocking tip). That is going to make it harder for us to leap up the ladder because even if we continue to match our level peggers on points we will always be running last. We might only be one pint off the leader but there are five teams ahead of us. Contrast this with any of the top four teams currently on 37 points. If any of them pick-up a point they’ll leap they’ll equal the leader on points but sit atop the ladder.
Margins, I predict (and you read it here first), will turn out to be our current leader, Patrick’s, Achilles. He’s riding high on points but if/when/if he drops a point he’ll plunge down the ladder like a [insert chilling footy simile here] because of his poor (comparatively) margin of 192. From first to fifth or sixth all because of one lousy tip.
You’ll also need some luck. Maybe lots of it. But think on this, “the more I tip, the luckier I get”.
Don’t despair we hear and feel your pain.
TS.
PS. The JaTS, are sixth on the Backpocket ladder and 3,215th in the big comp. So Patrick must be sitting way up high (even higher, with a better margin). What, I ponder, is the highest a Backpocket leader has been in the big comp? Mathilde?
Patrick announced last night that he was 280th out of 151 007 tipsters. I had to concede ... 'Quite good darling.'I do remember the Cygnet being 50 something one year, very early in the season, when he scored a very unlikely 8! But alas I have no hard evidence.
ReplyDeleteAll that talk of margins is making me feel more nervous than I already feel. I really am not sure how longer I can do this tipping business. To be leaping off the couch on Anzac Day for a suspect goal from some hopelessly tattooed Collingwood twat ... how much can a girl subject herself to ... all in the name of the dollar?
Oh well.
ReplyDelete